The role of cyber warfare in the current war in Ukraine
Since the inception of the war in Ukraine, the country’s cyber security authority has reported that it is facing constant cyber attacks against government and infrastructure networks as part of what is being described as the first hybrid war.
In the first days following the onset of the war, both the Russian military and Russian hackers actively and simultaneously targeted Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly in the media and communication sectors. One week into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for example, an airstrike targeted Kyiv’s central TV broadcasting systems, crippling the country’s TV station, at the same time as wiper attacks were reportedly targeting communication and telecom companies in Kyiv. The intent of these attacks, which combined precision-guided munitions and cyberattacks, was ostensibly to create disorder and incite panic.
In the months since, Russian hackers have continually tried to cripple Ukraine’s military communications, cause blackouts, disrupt its banking, media and other sectors as well as crash government websites and undermine its defenses and public confidence during a time of extreme crisis.
The impacts of these attacks have ranged from temporarily preventing access to basic and critical services and the distribution of medicines, food and relief supplies to data theft and the promulgation of disinformation.
On the Ukrainian side, and in response to Russian cyber aggressions, cyber warriors have been recruited from around the globe to join a Ukrainian IT army that communicates through a Telegram channel. This is the first time a government has recruited independents into what is essentially a global volunteer organization that is being used as a state-sponsored cyber army.
It is very important to recognize that despite obvious and repeated efforts on Russia’s part to destroy communication channels and defense capabilities and to incite panic, disillusionment, and disinformation, cyber attacks to date have been largely unsuccessful in achieving anything more than some temporary disruption. Websites are quickly brought back online, people have not been prevented from accessing or withdrawing funds from the banking sector and the Ukrainian military has been able to rely on alternative modes of communication, when necessary.
There are a number of key insights which may be drawn from this realization. The first is that taking active cyber defense measures is clearly effective in warding off potentially large scale attacks against critical infrastructures. Building off this first insight, and taking into account the impacts of cyber attacks in this current war to date, it is clear that conducting effective offensive cyber operations is challenging, despite the fact that Russia has extensive cyber capabilities. We also note that Russia have refrained from carrying out cyber attacks against critical infrastructures in the West.
That said, it appears as though cyber attacks will become a growing feature of modern warfare. The Ukraine war has set a precedent, moving the fight into the cyber domain and blurring the line between soldiers on the front and citizens at home.
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